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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Sat 22, 2018 1:03 pm 
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Two things and i shut up.
1- Like in any claim, the burden of proof is on the one making the claim. I just said there is no evidence that sniping results in either getting the item or spending less money for it. I don't have to prove that big foot doesn't exist, you have to prove that it exist.

2- I have put stuff for auction on Ebay. There is no way to know what is the max bid that someone made on your stuff. You say, again this is anecdotal evidence, that all "for-sale" items where gone. Would it be possible that because your email ebay checked the sellers account and found irregularities on the kind of things he was selling or the way he describe the items or terms of the sale? both of this things are grounds for cancellation of the account. Account cancellations are common in ebay, there is a lot of people that try to sell prohibited items.

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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Sat 22, 2018 2:44 pm 
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Testing a bid to learn another bidder's maximum does happen, just cancel your bid after you know what his is and snipe at the end for a win.


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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Sat 22, 2018 3:47 pm 
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Greg G wrote:
Testing a bid to learn another bidder's maximum does happen, just cancel your bid after you know what his is and snipe at the end for a win.

It may happen, but it doesn't seem a worthwhile strategy.

For one thing, there's no way to know what a person's max is w/o going OVER said max.
If people are watching, bid retractions can be an alert that someone is doing exactly this kind of probing.

Here's a problem:
According to these rules: https://www.ebay.com/help/buying/biddin ... id?id=4013
A bid cannot be retracted within 12 hours of auction end, unless it's been less than an hour since it was placed.
That allows plenty of time for a watchful person (i.e. the probe target/victim) to come in and up their bid, perhaps repeatedly, sporadically, so the prober can't be sure what their true max is until all is said and done.
It's quite possible the target is hip to that strategy and is playing the probers, watching to see if someone is doing exactly as you describe.

It would seem that method is only effective against the "set it and forget it" bidders, who don't actually pay attention to what happens with the auction after they set their bid (probably using eBay's proxy).

Another problem:
It's not difficult to outsnipe frugal snipers. The target can simply come in and snipe his own currently-highest bid. Say he has the current highest bid of $100. Since a bidder can increase his max at any time during the auction, all he need do is come in during the last 2-3 seconds and bump his bid to $200 to thwart snipers who are rubbing their hands together, thinking they're about to get that item for "barely" above the current high bid.
Which means, of course, that a person can be an "early" bidder and still win, via a combination early+snipe strategy. I can see how this might actually be advantageous. Setting an early high bid will deter a lot of frugals/low ballers, leaving fewer potential snipers to deal with (i.e., have to worry about competing server latencies and such).


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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Sat 22, 2018 6:15 pm 
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dan3460 wrote:
1- Like in any claim, the burden of proof is on the one making the claim. I just said there is no evidence that sniping results in either getting the item or spending less money for it.

Well, it's a web forum, and experience is freely shared. I've done my own experiments, I have my own evidence, and I've proven it to myself.

You may or may not do your own experiments, and you may or may not demonstrate the success of sniping to yourself. That's the whole point, really.

The thing I find most interesting about the topic, is that the success of sniping very explicitly depends on the rules of the auction. It doesn't work in live auctions, and it doesn't work in online systems that use different auction rules. It is a technique that has sprung up around the specific rule-set that eBay uses.

It very much depends on having a published, well-known, hard-stop end time for an auction, and the ability to know exactly when that end time is coming. That latter point is something that eBay has worked very hard to get right over the years. When little glitches occur that change or hamper the ability to tell when the end of an auction is coming, threads like this spring up. That in itself is an interesting phenomenon, IMO.

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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Sat 22, 2018 9:35 pm 
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dan3460 wrote:
Two things and i shut up.
1- Like in any claim, the burden of proof is on the one making the claim. I just said there is no evidence that sniping results in either getting the item or spending less money for it.

You wants evidence, do ya? OK, take a look at this little war between two bidders. This auction isn't for a radio, but that's beside the point;
https://www.ebay.com/bfl/viewbids/332960368734

Notice that bidder e***r placed a $50 bid on December 17. Bidder i***1 didn't come along until the next day, where he laddered it up to where e***r had to go to $200. i then pushed it up so e had to go to $300, and then i outbid him, so far.

Now it seems obvious to me that if e hadn't placed any bids whatsoever beforehand, and then sniped in the last few seconds, he very likely could have bagged it for $50. Now however, because he had to play, "quien es mas macho", if he wants the item he'll have to outbid $305. I can't offer a better example of using the snipe option to not only save money, but also allowing a better chance of winning the auction.

BTW, the item's real market value is about what the starting offer of $29 is...Whichever of these two characters wins it wouldn't be able to sell it for much more.

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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Sat 22, 2018 9:56 pm 
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fifties wrote:
dan3460 wrote:
Two things and i shut up.
1- Like in any claim, the burden of proof is on the one making the claim. I just said there is no evidence that sniping results in either getting the item or spending less money for it.

You wants evidence, do ya? OK, take a look at this little war between two bidders. This auction isn't for a radio, but that's beside the point;
https://www.ebay.com/bfl/viewbids/332960368734

Notice that bidder e***r placed a $50 bid on December 17. Bidder i***1 didn't come along until the next day, where he laddered it up to where e***r had to go to $200. i then pushed it up so e had to go to $300, and then i outbid him, so far.

Now it seems obvious to me that if e hadn't placed any bids whatsoever beforehand, and then sniped in the last few seconds, he very likely could have bagged it for $50. Now however, because he had to play, "quien es mas macho", if he wants the item he'll have to outbid $305. I can't offer a better example of using the snipe option to not only save money, but also allowing a better chance of winning the auction.

BTW, the item's real market value is about what the starting offer of $29 is...Whichever of these two characters wins it wouldn't be able to sell it for much more.

Don't know what this prove? That for that particular item, at that particular time, with those particular people it was a battle for an item. ok. Now show me the same article, with the same people bidding, but with sniping.

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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Sat 22, 2018 10:00 pm 
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dan3460 wrote:
fifties wrote:
dan3460 wrote:
Two things and i shut up.
1- Like in any claim, the burden of proof is on the one making the claim. I just said there is no evidence that sniping results in either getting the item or spending less money for it.

You wants evidence, do ya? OK, take a look at this little war between two bidders. This auction isn't for a radio, but that's beside the point;
https://www.ebay.com/bfl/viewbids/332960368734

Notice that bidder e***r placed a $50 bid on December 17. Bidder i***1 didn't come along until the next day, where he laddered it up to where e***r had to go to $200. i then pushed it up so e had to go to $300, and then i outbid him, so far.

Now it seems obvious to me that if e hadn't placed any bids whatsoever beforehand, and then sniped in the last few seconds, he very likely could have bagged it for $50. Now however, because he had to play, "quien es mas macho", if he wants the item he'll have to outbid $305. I can't offer a better example of using the snipe option to not only save money, but also allowing a better chance of winning the auction.

BTW, the item's real market value is about what the starting offer of $29 is...Whichever of these two characters wins it wouldn't be able to sell it for much more.

Don't know what this prove? That for that particular item, at that particular time, with those particular people it was a battle for an item. ok. Now show me the same article, with the same people bidding, but with sniping.

I already pointed that possibility out.

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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Sun 23, 2018 11:19 am 
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fifties wrote:
dan3460 wrote:
Two things and i shut up.
1- Like in any claim, the burden of proof is on the one making the claim. I just said there is no evidence that sniping results in either getting the item or spending less money for it.

You wants evidence, do ya? OK, take a look at this little war between two bidders. This auction isn't for a radio, but that's beside the point;
https://www.ebay.com/bfl/viewbids/332960368734

Notice that bidder e***r placed a $50 bid on December 17. Bidder i***1 didn't come along until the next day, where he laddered it up to where e***r had to go to $200. i then pushed it up so e had to go to $300, and then i outbid him, so far.

Now it seems obvious to me that if e hadn't placed any bids whatsoever beforehand, and then sniped in the last few seconds, he very likely could have bagged it for $50. Now however, because he had to play, "quien es mas macho", if he wants the item he'll have to outbid $305. I can't offer a better example of using the snipe option to not only save money, but also allowing a better chance of winning the auction.

BTW, the item's real market value is about what the starting offer of $29 is...Whichever of these two characters wins it wouldn't be able to sell it for much more.


Excellent example, thank you fifties!


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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Sun 23, 2018 4:37 pm 
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Consider the following scenario:

An item has zero bids and the seller starts the auction at $25 (let's say the seller believes it's actually worth $50 to most people).
It stays $25 with no bids until the last several seconds, when sniper wars begins.
A dozen snipers hit the auction, assured that waiting will secure the item at their desired price.
Three of those snipers really really want the item and bomb the auction with $200, $400, and $600 bids.
We all know who will win, and the point is that item wasn't going to sell for anywhere near $25, or even $50.

That may seem like an extreme example, but it happens a lot. I've seen many many items sell for what I consider to be ridiculously high amounts.

Conclusion: The act of sniping itself does not necessarily keep the FV low on any given item, and the person who bids highest always has the best chance of winning (because they're going to win).


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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Sun 23, 2018 6:31 pm 
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Vin Tageman wrote:
Three of those snipers really really want the item and bomb the auction with $200, $400, and $600 bids.
We all know who will win, and the point is that item wasn't going to sell for anywhere near $25, or even $50.

This is absolutely correct. However, it's not a very common case.

I don't know how many live auctions you've attended; I've only been to a dozen or less, but there's an interesting phenomenon I've noticed. People pretty darn-well know what an item is worth before they bid on it. Example, I was at an auction, there was a 1930s egg beater. I looked it up on eBay, where I found that model typically sells for $35-45. When the lot came up to bid, open $5, half a dozen cards went up. Auctioneer got to $20, people started pulling their cards. At $40, the last 2 cards dropped almost simultaneously. The auctioneer picked the guy who was slower to pull his arm down, assigned him $45, and closed the lot.

I see the same case on eBay fairly often. Basically, the top bidders tend to drop out right around the same level. The auction stalls, no-one else bids, and the auction closes with no sniping. It happens fairly often and rarely garners comments.

I agree, there can be "crazy snipers" who will bid $600 on a $200 item just to be sure they get it. But that's not the most common case.

The most common case is that a seller has an item that typically sells in the $100-200 range, and they want theirs to sell for $200 of course, knowing little about it, so they set their opening bid at $150. Potential bidders look at it and make their own valuations, all of which are less than $200 (because only the very best ones sell for that much), and most of which are less than $150. Only one or two people are going to look at that item and agree it's worth $150. And the only way to win it for $150 is if they have no competition bidding, because there's no room to bid it up any more. Other people will watch the auction, curious to know if their valuation is too low.

This is the most common scenario seen in auctions on eBay, it's unremarkable, it rarely gets discussed, and it's the scenario where sniping gives you the best chance if you're the $150 bidder. Everyone's waiting to see if anyone else bids. If you stick your bid out there early, you run the risk of letting other people talk themselves into believing the item could be worth $175, when they initially thought it was only worth $125-140. If you hold your $150 bid to the very end, maybe nobody else rises to the occasion. If there's still another guy out there holding a $200 bid, nothing you do will win you that item for $150, no matter how you bid. But if you are the high bidder, sniping doesn't give all the lower bidders time to talk themselves up $30 or $60 bucks and convince themselves the item's worth trying to overbid you.

The second-most common case, but the one that seems to get a lot more attention, is when a $100-200 item comes up with a $9.99 opening bid. People will often bid this up to around $75-100, then wait for the end. There will be sniping. Usually it will all be in the $100-200 range, because everyone knows what the item's worth. It basically becomes exactly the same discussion as the most-common case, but with a little more room to bid. Highest sniper wins, the people with lower valuations have no time to talk themselves up, and the item sells somewhere right in the expected $100-200 range.

The case where two people sweep in at the last second and put in crazy bids well over the expected value happens so rarely, it's almost not worth considering. It is very, very rare that a $100-200 item closes for $405 because there were two snipers who bid $400 and $600. Sniping out of the value range of an item is a maneuver best reserved for only the most dear items. All the rest of the time, you should only bid what the item is worth, regardless of whether your bid is a regular bid or a snipe bid.

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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Sun 23, 2018 9:24 pm 
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palegreenthumb wrote:
.. give all the lower bidders time to talk themselves up $30 or $60 bucks and convince themselves the item's worth trying to overbid you.

Books could be (and probably have been) written on the psychology behind that.

I go in knowing what the item is "worth" by the books, and the only reason I would pursue an item beyond it's "recognized" value is if it happened to be hard-to-find and I really wanted it. What I bid high on is esoteric stuff to begin with, so I'm typically faced with only a handful of other bidders who are interested.
If borderline (or full on) desperate to have it, I would fight for it and spend more than I wanted to, perspire, start calculating what I now must purchase less of in my life, and then ultimately realize how glad I am that it's now mine.
The alternative is to wait years and years and maybe never see another one (or one in as good condition and complete).

Some may say that makes ME a "crazy" bidder, but it's all relative; some people pay millions for works of art that I wouldn't give a nickel for.
That said, I've also lost my share of items I really wanted, because the other bidders were actually crazy! :lol:

Quote:
The case where two people sweep in at the last second and put in crazy bids well over the expected value happens so rarely, it's almost not worth considering.

Maybe it's the items I tend to bid on, but I have seen many auctions go well beyond reasonable. You are likely referring to antique radios in general, as it should be for this forum. I am not, even though I'm on this forum posting about it. That may explain our different experiences.


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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Sun 23, 2018 11:29 pm 
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Quote:
The case where two people sweep in at the last second and put in crazy bids well over the expected value happens so rarely, it's almost not worth considering.

As pointed out above, this may be the case for antique radios, but it's so far off the mark for other collectibles it's not even funny.

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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Tue 25, 2018 9:13 am 
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Vin Tageman wrote:
Maybe it's the items I tend to bid on, but I have seen many auctions go well beyond reasonable. You are likely referring to antique radios in general, as it should be for this forum. I am not, even though I'm on this forum posting about it. That may explain our different experiences.
fifties wrote:
As pointed out above, this may be the case for antique radios, but it's so far off the mark for other collectibles it's not even funny.


Huh. I am surprised by this. Are you saying radio hobbyists are more rational than other collectors? Can you give examples of other collectibles where there tends to be more than one bidder throwing absolutely bat-poop crazy bids out? You've got me curious. Do you have any (likely) explanation for the wild valuations?

Are you specifically talking about sniping, or just bidding in general, regardless of technique?

By the sounds of it, I'm glad I'm in the radio hobby.


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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Tue 25, 2018 8:40 pm 
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palegreenthumb wrote:
Vin Tageman wrote:
Maybe it's the items I tend to bid on, but I have seen many auctions go well beyond reasonable. You are likely referring to antique radios in general, as it should be for this forum. I am not, even though I'm on this forum posting about it. That may explain our different experiences.
fifties wrote:
As pointed out above, this may be the case for antique radios, but it's so far off the mark for other collectibles it's not even funny.


Huh. I am surprised by this. Are you saying radio hobbyists are more rational than other collectors? Can you give examples of other collectibles where there tends to be more than one bidder throwing absolutely bat-poop crazy bids out? You've got me curious. Do you have any (likely) explanation for the wild valuations?

Are you specifically talking about sniping, or just bidding in general, regardless of technique?

By the sounds of it, I'm glad I'm in the radio hobby.

I already gave an example above. A $29 value '50's comic book going for $305, and this behavior is not at all unusual in that genre of collectibles. https://www.ebay.com/bfl/viewbids/332960368734

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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Tue 25, 2018 9:07 pm 
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I can't believe this thread is still going....

I only snipe on an item that seldom comes up and I really want. If I put up my highest bid early, there always seems to be someone who will run it up slowly until they are just a few bucks more than me. The psychology for the other guy seems to be that if someone is willing to pay $xx, then I will pay $xx +$5. I have lost a bunch of auctions as outlined above because I have been too lazy to get a new sniper program recently. I was using Bidslammer, but they raised their price to a crazy level. There are still companies who will place a bid for 10 cents each. That said, the great majority of my purchases are on BIN items. I only list items for BIN myself.


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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Wed 26, 2018 3:26 pm 
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One word: LEGO

Not saying I buy that, but some of the bidding on that stuff is nuts.


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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Wed 26, 2018 8:26 pm 
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When I bid on an eBay auction I ONLY use eSnipe. I determine the maximum that I am willing to pay, set my bid, and don't look at it until the auction is over. I never overpay and avoid bidding wars.

I found that when I started sniping my bids that I was winning more auctions and paying less. When you bid far in advance of the end time it only gives other bidders time to drive the price up and in the case of a shill, they can slowly drive the price up until they figure out your high bid.

I seldom buy radios on eBay these days though. Usually just parts and books/manuals to fill holes in my library.

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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Wed 26, 2018 8:53 pm 
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Here's another example of why one should snipe, rather than bid in advance. This book is worth about $30, per guide;

https://www.ebay.com/bfl/viewbids/264095715810

e***r put in an enormously high hidden reserve bid six days ago. Had he waited until today when the auction ends, he very likely could have gotten it for one bid increment above i***1's first bid of $30, or if other bidders come along, certainly well below $400.

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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Wed 26, 2018 9:47 pm 
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I said i would not comment anymore but:
Where is your proof of the same book, with the same people and sniping?
An article is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it. I don't spend too much time analyzing bid, i just think is stupid, but for this guy the book was worth $400. How do you know that maybe his max bid was $1000 and at $400 he got a bargain.

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 Post subject: Re: Is eBay Eliminating Last-second Bidding?
PostPosted: Dec Wed 26, 2018 9:55 pm 
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dan3460 wrote:
I said i would not comment anymore but:
Where is your proof of the same book, with the same people and sniping?
An article is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it. I don't spend too much time analyzing bid, i just think is stupid, but for this guy the book was worth $400. How do you know that maybe his max bid was $1000 and at $400 he got a bargain.

You seem to keep wanting to see an imaginary scenario of the same auction with sniping, and of course that's impossible.

My reference as to the books value is "The Overstreet Comic Book Price Guide", 2018 edition. The condition of this particular book indicates a value of approximately $30, as I had stated. Now if paying $400 is a bargain in the high bidders mind, that's fine, but it's not real world.

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