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 Post subject: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Fri 12, 2019 10:10 pm 
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The data presented here is quite useful in understand the future of vehicles, and is based on a report from the Manhattan Institute by Mark P. Mills, entitled “The New Energy Economy: An Exercise in Magical Thinking.” Enjoy!
http://www.autoextremist.com/

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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Fri 12, 2019 10:32 pm 
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Everyone likes the idea of an electric car, just like they like the idea of a car that can drive along and then transition to a flying machine and zip over the top of the traffic, obstacles, and bother, in a straight line to your destination. But some people are all-in and act like it is a done deal and everyone not in on it is a fool. His assertion that they make sense as a second vehicle or strictly urban use seems more realistic for now.

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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Fri 12, 2019 10:57 pm 
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Hummmm, Auto Extremist, that website title does not sound biased at all... :roll:

And the fact that the article is a rant really doesn't help the credibility.

Anyway, electric car technology has come a long way, and so has charging technology. Tesla in particular with their super charger network makes long road trips possible with most of the battery being charged within the time it takes to eat at a restaurant. Driving ranges have improved too. It is not unheard of to see ranges in excess of 200 miles. Now that most automakers are heavily investing in electric car technology, I bet great improvements can be made while lowering the cost of the vehicle itself.

Battery performance when cold and hot has been a problem. Many current electric cars have battery heaters and coolers to help keep the battery in the optimum temperature range. Interestingly using the heat or air conditioning in electric cars don't affect the range all that much, simply because they consume much less energy than the electric motors. Regenerative braking also recoups energy that would be lost due to heat in standard disc brake setups.

Now I completely understand that electric car technology is near as convenient or affordable as internal combustion engines and charging/electric grid infrastructure is a major hurdle in electric cars being commonplace, but I think we should give credit where credit is due.

Don't get me wrong, I absolutely love my internal combustion cars that I have to shift. They are fun to drive and would hate to give them up, I want to continue to drive them, and I will, but electric cars are much better than they used to be and will continue to do so.


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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Fri 12, 2019 11:03 pm 
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It's mature technology. Many neighbors and a friend has newer electrical cars. They drive like a "regular" car except they're really quiet and no oil change very 6000 miles. Just remember to plug it when you get home.


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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Fri 12, 2019 11:22 pm 
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I don't really understand why plug-in hybrid cars haven't become more common, except that it seems like the voices that get heard are determined to pick a side and admit no middle ground.

Vehicles like the Chevy Volt are genius, because so many trips that people take are short trips around town. For those, Chevy Volt runs on electric and the gas engine never starts. Jump on the highway for a weekend getaway, you press one button, and it's a gas-powered car like any other.

I have a Ford C-Max Energi, also a plug-in hybrid, and over the life of the car, it has averaged 74 mpg. In-town, the gas engine stays off. On the highway, it returns a modest 34 mpg. That's perfect for our driving habits, going to work daily in-town and making weekend trips out-of-town, which I imagine is similar to maybe 80% of people in the US. We get great gas mileage and we only fill the gas tank once a month or so.

But the eco-lovers poo-poo it because it still burns gas, and the eco-haters poo-poo it because they insist they'd never drive an electric car. I don't understand either side. Choose the system that works best, I say, and have it at the press of a button any time you want it.

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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Fri 12, 2019 11:27 pm 
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Check your rear-view mirror. The big boys are coming!

Volkswagen and Ford team up on self-driving and electric cars.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48965315

Greg.


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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Fri 12, 2019 11:38 pm 
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The hybrid seems plausible to me except the ones I have seen are rather...compact. I drove a compact for 10 years till this spring and I am soooo happy to be back in a quiet full sized car. An all day road trip cinched that for me. Remember if you can eliminate all motor noise, you still have to contend with road and wind noise, somehow.

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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Fri 12, 2019 11:50 pm 
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one advantage of electric is free charging at many work locations, for now, that has to be expensive.
A limited range with long waits for a recharge has to be solved, like service station attendants who can swap batteries in minutes and get you back on the road, in the time of a gas fill up.

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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Fri 12, 2019 11:55 pm 
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I don't really understand why plug-in hybrid cars haven't become more common, except that it seems like the voices that get heard are determined to pick a side and admit no middle ground


The cost was a big factor. Most folks were not going to dish out for a Prius etc and get a small return. That is changing with the Volt and leaf etc.

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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Fri 12, 2019 11:59 pm 
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Yes, it seems people are on the extremes with stuff like this. No middle ground.

I never understood extremism...

I could say more but I must avoid the 'P" word.

Another viable alternative is hydrogen. Powerful, quick to refill and good with emissions. I know there are challenges with safety, but my personal opinion is it seems the best alternative to get away from fossil fuels.
It could be electric with a fuel cell or a standard ICE.

-Steve

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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Sat 13, 2019 12:01 am 
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egg wrote:
Check your rear-view mirror. The big boys are coming
Did you read the hard facts? It is currently impractical to the point of being impossible for electric cars to displace more than a small percentage of gasoline powered vehicles.

Hybrids have been on sale for a long time, but have not garnered more than a small market share.

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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Sat 13, 2019 12:07 am 
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I love how quite those cars are, although it's safer for a ton of roll steel to make some noticeable noise. It's probably just new technology fear, but I think I would feel restricted with one, as how you feel when you lease a car and have limited mileage. I'm doing that now but will never do it again. What if your car needs charging and you suddenly have an emergency? What if you're driving in the early hours through a rural area and misjudged how much of charge you have? When I drive up to Vermont I've had times were I couldn't even find an open gas station in the wee hours! I just don't like feeling that I have any restrictions with my automobile. I'll buy an electric car when I no longer have a choice.


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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Sat 13, 2019 12:16 am 
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decojoe67 wrote:
I love how quite those cars are, although it's safer for a ton of roll steel to make some noticeable noise. It's probably just new technology fear, but I think I would feel restricted with one, as how you feel when you lease a car and have limited mileage. I'm doing that now but will never do it again. What if your car needs charging and you suddenly have an emergency? What if you're driving in the early hours through a rural area and misjudged how much of charge you have? When I drive up to Vermont I've had times were I couldn't even find an open gas station in the wee hours! I just don't like feeling that I have any restrictions with my automobile. I'll buy an electric car when I no longer have a choice.


I understand that fear. There will prob be some "emergency get 50 miles extra " battery pack, like a cell phone battery pack.

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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Sat 13, 2019 12:17 am 
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Currently (heh) the technology doesn't scale, the power grid is in no way even close to the task of providing the juice necessary for electric cars in any significant numbers. Electric vehicles and charging stations are also very heavily subsidized, they can't make it on their own just yet.

They have promise, especially in urban or suburban areas where driving distances are short. For all that a golf cart would be just about perfect for many people in quite a few areas. If we could change the laws to allow them on public streets it would be very economical and practical transportation for millions of people and they use more or less standard lead-acid batteries. Probably well under $5000


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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Sat 13, 2019 12:18 am 
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simplex1040 wrote:
The cost was a big factor. Most folks were not going to dish out for a Prius etc and get a small return. That is changing with the Volt and leaf etc.

Expensive for a single car I suppose, but a lot cheaper than owning two, maintaining two, paying insurance on two. We talked about an electric car for in-town and a gas car for road trips, but didn't want to spend that much money and have to maintain two cars. The plug-in hybrid has proven to be a very nice solution.

And if you run the battery down, the engine comes on and you hardly realize the difference.

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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Sat 13, 2019 12:25 am 
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The cost factor of electric vs internal combustion is narrowing almost daily it seems. Since all the major auto makers are now full speed ahead on electric vehicles, one would have to assume that the gap will either vanish, or probably imho tilt towards electrics.

Say what you want, better, worse, good, bad, neutral or anything in between ... they are here, and they are going to stay. And just keep getting better and better.

Until you sit in the cockpit of a new Tesla (friend here has one) don't knock it. ... one amazing piece of technology, and that's even NOT considering the vehicle itself. The user interface puts all of the current touchscreen displays in vehicles. (are you listening, Chevrolet?) to absolute shame.

One thing he showed me ... give it your start and end destination, it looks up all possible routes, shows you all charging stations along each route, what the capacity is for each one, how many vehicles are using each one at that instant ..... tells you how to route yourself based on needing charge .... and oh so much more. And it's way more detailed than my rather new Silverado system.

The rest of the stuff is just as impressive... I really couldn't absorb any more in one sitting.

And.... battery life has about doubled since they started, and is set to do so again.

Reality? it's here now.

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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Sat 13, 2019 12:30 am 
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FStephenMasek wrote: Did you read the hard facts? It is currently impractical to the point of being impossible for electric cars to displace more than a small percentage of gasoline powered vehicles.

------------

Mark Mills' report. pdf 24p
The New Energy Economy: An Exercise in Magical Thinking.
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/ ... 319-MM.pdf


Yes, it's interesting, but... this is where we are heading!

How will the petrol/gas and diesel ban work?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40726868

Greg.


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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Sat 13, 2019 12:31 am 
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Stupid question... who pays to build all the necessary infrastructure to charge these things?
Electricity isn't free is it? If only the folks choosing to use an electric vehicle are paying for it, fine.
If I am paying for it somehow, I'm not so fine with it.


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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Sat 13, 2019 12:37 am 
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majortom wrote:
Stupid question... who pays to build all the necessary infrastructure to charge these things?
Electricity isn't free is it? If only the folks choosing to use an electric vehicle are paying for it, fine.
If I am paying for it somehow, I'm not so fine with it.


.....gasoline isn't free either. :shock: ;-). You pay for roads, some of which pays for gasoline infrastructure. So do your taxes..... the oil companies still get a certain subsidy. Not nearly what they got to develop the fuel infrastructure originally, but still some.

never did understand why there is so little acceptance of doing the same with electric power as we originally did with gas and oil.

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 Post subject: Re: Electric cars vs Reality
PostPosted: Jul Sat 13, 2019 12:55 am 
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I don't feel safe in anything smaller than something like a Ford Crown Victoria, or a Honda Odyssey, wife also does not want a small or even mid size car, nor an SUV. Plus there must be the ability to carry significant cargo volume, sometimes on a moment's notice. Also my wife refuses to drive anything with digital dashboard or LCD screens on the dash so a full set of traditional analog controls and dial type dash instruments are mandatory.

Price is the other concern, we do not purchase new vehicles and would need the ability to find a used and affordable one that was capable of being driven for a life expectancy of 20 years or more with a minimum of repairs. I can easily do that with either of the two vehicles I have named.

Find me an electric with the physical size and cargo capacity of a Honda Odyssey and no digital or LCD screens, capable of carrying 4 adults comfortably along with the cargo load, and available for a reasonable cost ($1000 to $10000) about 5 years or so old that will not require maintenance beyond the normal tires, brakes, and typically expected wear items, and we can talk. Otherwise, it's not happening. I can continue to do that with a Crown Vic or Odyssey for the foreseeable future unless they find a way to cut off the supply of gas or price it so no one can afford to purchase it. I'm perfectly OK with around 18-20 MPG around town and 25 or so on the highway.

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